From Doctor Jon Ward-
It’s been a bit since I’ve done a COVID update because I’ve noted some positive numbers but wanted to see a few more days of data before sharing.
So here goes: The national data has increased death rate due to the higher deaths this week in CA, TX, AZ, and FL.
Death is the lagging indicator, but the biggest headline when they increase.
The week is not over, but it looks like we will have about 950 daily deaths in the US this week. Keep in mind, during the worst week of the pandemic, just one state (NY) had daily deaths that high. At the state level, it looks like we will have the worst week yet of reported deaths, coming in at around 130 daily deaths.
The good news is that vs. last week so far testing is higher and cases are down 12%. Also for the first time since AHCA began releasing the data on patients currently hospitalized that number is also started a modest decline.
Death is the lagging indicator, cases and hospitalizations are the leading indicators. So it appears Florida has turned a corner.
This week should be a peak in daily deaths and next week should remain the same or decrease modestly.
Then if the NY curve holds for FL, we will have 4 weeks of modest decreases and a return to very few cases and deaths.
I thought Bay County was behind the state by a week, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Our new cases Mon-Thurs this week vs Mon-Thurs last week are down by 13%.
And similar to the state AHCA COVID hospitalization data, we are also seeing them finally peak and decline in Bay County.
The number of COVID patients in the hospital is still higher than is ideal, but for 3 consecutive days the number has decreased. I have included a chart looking at the state and county trend.
Please note that Florida hospitalization is divided by 100 so that it fits on the graph with the Bay County data. Our county’s case hospitalization rate is 3.6% and the case fatality rate is 0.6%, both well under both the state and national averages.
I’ll have a more thorough and complete analysis on Sunday, when the full week’s numbers are complete, but this is the first week that the leading indicators are decreasing.
It appears this virus runs a 4-5 week increase and plateau and it seems to be independent of intervention short of draconian lockdowns.
There is no evidence any of the public health interventions have significantly moved the needle outside of China.
Protect the vulnerable, socially distance, and wash your hands! 4 weeks to go and we will be able to focus on getting our kids back in school and enjoying productive society again.
Have an excellent weekend and don’t forget to get a little sunshine too! That Vitamin D may help protect you from the corona virus.
