Cases of COVID-19 have plunged among Florida seniors, an encouraging sign for the group that’s suffered the largest number of deaths in the state — and a strong indication the disease may finally be on the retreat.
New cases dropped 56% in the past four weeks among people aged 65 and over, as survivors of disease benefited from their own immunity and nearly half of seniors were shielded by vaccinations.
Gov. Ron DeSantis made Florida the first state to open up vaccinations to anyone aged 65 or older. And while this policy initially led to crashed web sites and long lines as demand overwhelmed supply, it resulted in 45% of seniors receiving at least one dose, the second-highest rate in the United States.
“It’s wonderful that it’s slowing down in elderly people,” said Dr. Mary Jo Trepka, chairwoman of the Epidemiology Department of Florida International University. “And we’re going to see that in fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths.”
The decline tracks a broad drop in new cases across the United States at a time of both great hope and great anxiety, as the mass distribution of vaccines competes with the rise of more contagious variants of the virus. Previous declines in cases have been followed by sharp increases.
Experts say that’s less likely now, since the availability of vaccines is a game-changer. But danger remains from variants of the COVID virus. And there could be a return of the the complacency that led people to take a decline in cases as a cue to head into restaurants, attend crowded events and leave their masks at home.
“So much of it depends on human behavior and the actions people are taking,” said Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida in Tampa, who compiled the figures showing the reduction in cases among seniors. “We can maintain this drop in new cases if we don’t give the virus the opportunity to continue mutating.”
The governor’s seniors-first policy led to mass vaccination events at 55+ communities such as Century Village Boca Raton, where in January, 4,000 doses were administered.
“It was very well-coordinated, like clockwork,” said Deborah Sachs, 73, who got her shot at that event. “The first couple of days people stood in line, but I waited. There were lots of vaccines left. I walked up to the desk, picked up my card, filled it out. I never had to wait in line.”
Despite receiving both doses of the Pfizer vaccine, Sachs is still careful.
“I have not changed my habits,” she said. “I double-mask. I go to the grocery store, stock up and let three or four weeks go by. I have things delivered also. Definitely no restaurants.”
A key to the reduction among seniors has been a sharp drop in cases at long-term care facilities, which DeSantis and the federal government placed at the front of the line for vaccines.
New cases at long-term care facilities have fallen 70% since January, driven by a vaccination program that so far has delivered shots to nearly three-fourths of residents.
The dramatic decline comes at facilities that have seen more COVID deaths in Florida than any other institutions. More than 10,000 residents have died, nearly a third of the state’s total.
“Our numbers are going down and that’s a positive sign,” said Kristin Knapp, communications director for the Florida Heath Care Association, which represents most of the state’s nursing homes. “It gives us hope that at some point we will return to a sense of normal.”
Despite the progress, issues remain, particularly reluctance by some staff members to be vaccinated. Although staffers at long-term care facilities have been offered vaccinations, only about 35% have received them.
“The vaccines were offered to 100% of residents and staff in long-term care, and some folks didn’t pick up on it right away,” said Jeff Johnson, state director for AARP Florida. “The focus should be to eliminate the virus completely from those facilities because that’s where 30% of deaths in Florida were from.”
While the drop in new cases among the elderly is promising, Johnson said, he’s cautious because the state has seen declines in the past followed by sharp increases.
“I have been fooled enough times in thinking it’s going away,” he said. “And then it comes back.”
While nearly half of Florida seniors are vaccinated now, Johnson said a percentage of seniors still are frustrated trying to get appointments, and he fears they will give up. “We are not going to get to herd immunity if we create a class of people who have given up,” he said.
While the emphasis in vaccine distribution has been on seniors, DeSantis said last week vaccines will be made available to younger people next month.
“I think the supply is going to be very robust,” he said at a news conference in Jacksonville. “Within the next four to six weeks, you’re going to see this, I think, potentially really turn a corner just in terms of how ready access people have to it.”
Most of the evidence indicates the situation continues to improve. The number of people hospitalized, for example, has dropped 38% in four weeks, said Salemi, the University of South Florida epidemiologist.
“That’s certainly a great sign, especially because current hospitalizations are predictive of deaths,” he said.
Despite the vaccines and reduction in cases, many seniors continue their pre-vaccine precautions.
“I’m glad things are better for the seniors but there are a lot of things that were said at the beginning of the pandemic that were wrong,” said Alawn Rockoff, 74, of West Palm Beach. “We are just being careful until there is absolutely solid proof that things are better.”
When more people are vaccinated and case counts drop lower, she will start to feel more at ease. Meanwhile, she encourages her friends to get vaccinated.
“Some seniors really do need it,” she said. “Being cooped up for a year has been horrible on everyone, and a lot of seniors are alone.”
Much of the continued progress in Florida relies on vaccinating seniors in all pockets of the state. A California health consulting company released a report that claimed South Florida counties were likely to face some of the most severe vaccine shortages in the United States.
Miami-Dade County ranks fourth and Broward County ranks 10th on a list of the counties in the 10 largest states most likely to face shortages, according the report from Cogitativo, which has researched vaccine demand in California for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Palm Beach County ranks 29th.
The company’s analysis looked at which counties had the largest numbers of vulnerable people, based on an analysis of county’s demographics, conditions such as air quality and access to transportation, and prevalence of obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure.
The report called for vaccines to be distributed according to these criteria, rather than the current federal guidelines that focus more broadly on the size of elderly populations and the number of people in long-term care facilities.
Under the report’s hypothetical scenario of 100 million doses available nationwide, with all vaccines requiring two shots, Miami-Dade County would face a deficit of 166,848 doses and Broward a deficit of 100,082 doses.
Courtesy David Fleshler (dfleshler@sunsentinel.com) and Cindy Krischer Goodman (cgoodman@sunsentinel.com)