On Monday, August 29, 2022, a broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
It has a medium (50 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent) chance in the next 5 days.
In the central Subtropical Atlantic: a small low-pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower activity.
Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week.
It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and in the next 5 days.
In the eastern tropical Atlantic: a tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this evening or early Tuesday.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
It has a low (10 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low ( 30 percent) chance during the next 5 days.
In the northwestern Caribbean Sea: a trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
It has a near zero chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a low (20 percent) chance during the next 5 days.
