At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), on Sunday, September 25, 2022, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was about 265 miles (425 km) south-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica this evening and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight
or early Monday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid-week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
