Hurricane Ian is continuing to rapidly intensify and now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
Ian is expected to be a major hurricane late tonight before reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
Ian is now moving north-northwest and it will gradually turn north by Tuesday.
Ian is expected to slow down as it nears the West Coast of Florida.
Some models show a turn back to the north-northwest into our region. There is still
considerable uncertainty in the track at days 3 through 5.
Tropical Storm Wind probabilities are now holding steading in the eastern portion of our region and
decreasing in the western portion of our region.
For Tallahassee, there is a 6 in 10 chance for tropical storm force winds.
For points in Coastal Taylor and Dixie County, there is an 8 in 10 chance for tropical storm force winds.
It is important to watch the trends in these probabilities. Upward trends indicate increasing threats to our area.
Ian is expected to be a large hurricane over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds could reach coastal areas of the Florida Big Bend as early as Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm force winds could reach inland areas as early as Wednesday evening.
There is uncertainty in this forecast, as Ian is expected to slow down, which could delay the arrival of tropical storm force winds until Thursday.
Hurricane Ian is expected to strengthen into a large, major hurricane over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The intensity of the hurricane and large wind field will create the potential for significant storm surge.
Because of the storm’s size, don’t focus on the overall intensity near landfall.
Hurricane Ian is moving to the north-northwest and will continue to intensify rapidly today and into Tuesday.
Ian is expected to be a major hurricane in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
The potential continues to increase for significant impacts for coastal areas of our forecast area in the Florida Big Bend. The eventual track of Ian will greatly influence impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge.
It cannot be overstated that there remains a lot of uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day forecast. Even so, Ian is expected to be a large storm, and impacts will be felt well outside the forecast track cone.
