Isolated Severe Storms Possible on Thursday, January 12, 2023 Afternoon and Evening, with Damaging Wind Gusts

Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday, January 12, 2023, afternoon and Thursday evening. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts.

Overview:

• What: A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the region in advance of a cold front. This includes the possibility of isolated severe storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern.

• When: Thursday afternoon through Thursday Evening

• Where: The greater chance of severe storms will be along and northwest of a line from Dothan, Alabama, to Leesburg, Georgia, where there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms. Southeast of that line, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms extending as far southeast as a Saint Marks-to-Valdosta line. (see attached graphic)

• Rainfall: Not expected to cause flooding.

Alternate Possibilities:

Several guidance members fail to destabilize the atmosphere enough to generate severe thunderstorms. Therefore, it is possible that later outlooks will shrink the Marginal and Slight Risk areas.

The low-level wind profile looks unfavorable for tornadoes, based on the forecast of a southwest surface wind in advance of the front. If the surface wind is more southerly or southeasterly than forecast, then there might be a threat of a brief tornado or two.