More strong to severe weather is possible today. Flooding from heavy rainfall is still a concern.
Overview:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within our Gulf waters and are expected to pop up in a more widespread manner later this morning across the region.
The forcing for the storms today is still a large-scale upper-level low pressure system over the southeast.
As this low pressure system spins, it will cause showers and storms to move toward its center, likely in the form of rain bands.
This may cause storms to train over the same area, thus, elevating flooding concerns given high rain rates and saturated soils from previous rainfall. As a result, a flood watch will be in effect beginning later this morning through Friday evening, when the low pressure system is expected to depart from the region.
The wind speed aloft is still stronger than usual for this time of year, thus, some of these storms may be strong to severe.
Convective Outlook- The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Tri-state area under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Potential impacts continue to be: power outages and downed trees, as we have seen in recent days. The latter is more susceptible where soils are saturated from previous rains.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook- The Weather Prediction Center has the entire Tri-state area under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Instances of flash flooding appear possible mainly from training storms repeatedly moving over the same locations. The most vulnerable spots are those with saturated soils, and urban, low-lying, or poor-drainage areas.
