Washington County, Florida Emergency Management advises of widespread severe thunderstorms and showers on Friday, August 4, 2023, with subsequent flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather on Friday and Friday Night.
Isolated damaging winds are the primary threat. If the storms congeal into a more robust line, a more widespread damaging wind threat is possible. Isolated flash flooding is also possible, especially if storms repeatedly move or train over the same areas.
An active pattern is shaping up beginning Thursday Night and continuing through Friday Night. While there is uncertainty on timing, there is increasing confidence that several complexes of thunderstorms will move across the tri-state region from northwest to southeast from late Thursday Night through Friday Night. Storms Thursday Night may have some gusty winds, but the main severe weather threat is on Friday into Friday Night, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). In this scenario, isolated damaging winds are the primary threat.
Another scenario is for storms to congeal into a more robust line and sweep across the region sometime between Friday afternoon and Friday Night, leading to a more widespread threat of damaging winds.
With the anomalously moist air mass in place and the potential for several complexes of thunderstorms from Thursday Night through Friday Night, the potential for isolated flooding has also increased. While antecedent conditions are fairly dry, a reasonable worst case scenario is for localized rainfall amounts of around 3 inches. If this amount of rain falls in a short period of time, due to storms repeatedly moving or training over the same areas, isolated flash flooding could result.
