Weather experts are continuing to call for an above-average hurricane season, with increased odds of a major hurricane striking the U.S. Gulf Coast or Eastern Seaboard this season.
It could mark the eighth consecutive season with an average or above-average number of storms in the Atlantic, which has been churning out destructive hurricanes at a breakneck pace since the last slowdown in 2015.
We may be two months into Atlantic hurricane season, but historically, 90 percent of a season’s activity tends to come after August 1.
With the historical peak just six weeks away and an uptick in storminess seemingly inevitable, tropical weather experts at Colorado State University updated their hurricane season outlook on Thursday, August 3, 2023.
As of Thursday, August 3, 2023, here were the latest predictions from Colorado State University:
- 13 more named storms. There have been five storms to reach tropical storm strength already, including four named storms and a subtropical storm in January that was discovered by the National Hurricane Center in post-analysis. That means experts are calling for a total of 18 named storms this season, compared with an average of 14.4.
- 7 more hurricanes. There was already one hurricane, Don, which spent a fleeting 12 hours as a hurricane last month. Initially a subtropical storm when it formed on July 14, Don weakened, became tropical and then strengthened into a hurricane on July 22 as it crossed the Gulf Stream. It degenerated into a post-tropical low two days later, remaining harmlessly out to sea. With a predicted seasonal total of eight hurricanes, 2023 could peak slightly above the seasonal average of 7.2 hurricanes.
- 4 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes reach Category 3 strength or greater, corresponding to winds of 111 mph or greater. An average season has 3.2 major hurricanes.
The Colorado State researchers are also estimating a 48 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on U.S. soil, compared with a long-term historic average of 43 percent.
Specifically, the East Coast, including the Atlantic coast of the Florida Peninsula, has a 25 percent chance of encountering a major hurricane, and the Gulf of Mexico coast has a 31 percent chance, according to their outlook.
