Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now believe that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than average, according to their final update for the year.
Their update calls for 14 to 21 total storms, six to 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes and two to five of which will reach at least Category 3 status.
This is an increase of two to three storms, one to two hurricanes and one major hurricane since their previous outlook, which was released in July.
The increase in storms and the overall outlook from NOAA take into account five storms that have already occurred this year.
The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
A major contributor to the planet’s hottest July on record was record warmth in the Atlantic Basin where hurricanes and tropical storms form, and an index that tracks the warmth of the North Atlantic Ocean known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was at its highest level since at least 1950.
The scope and magnitude of this anomalous warmth as of late July was well beyond what was seen in other warm ocean hyperactive hurricane seasons such as 2020, 2017 and 2005.
This is important because assuming other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer the ocean water, the stronger a storm or hurricane can become.
Typically, there is a cooler pocket of water early in hurricane season from the Cabo Verde Islands to Bermuda to the northern Leeward Islands.
Tropical waves reaching this pocket of colder waters often succumb to otherwise hostile conditions.
What these outlooks cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.
A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating.
