The latest tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is expected to develop today and could near parts of the Caribbean next week.
The system of concern is several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and is traveling westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
It has been tagged Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center.
The NHC assigns this “Invest” tag to disturbances in order to produce specialized computer guidance and to add additional resources to improve forecasts.
It has gradually developed a circulation since departing the west coast of Africa and should have generally favorable atmospheric conditions in the Main Development Region (MDR). A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so.
The next named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season will be named Philippe.
It will follow the southern edge of the Bermuda High over the next week or so, typically moving west or west-northwest heading into the middle of the next week.
This part of the forecast is fairly certain.
As we saw with Hurricane Lee, the next step in this system’s voyage will likely be a northward turn, but where and when this turn takes place is somewhat uncertain.
This turn will depend on when the Bermuda High will let its guard down.
That ridge deflects systems westward in its clockwise flow until storms either outrun the dome of high pressure or the high pressure system weakens or moves away.
It is increasingly likely that this turn will occur to the east and north of the Leeward Antilles, but some impacts to the islands is still possible.
What, if any, impacts may be are uncertain, but increased surf along north and east-facing shores is an increasing concern.
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters may send out a jet to investigate the pattern in the Atlantic as soon as Monday, which should help computer forecast models narrow those uncertainties.
Those in the Leeward and Virgin islands and Puerto Rico should keep an eye on this system. Changes to the forecast are expected through next week.
The African tropical wave train generally becomes less active as we move into late September and October, and we’ll need to begin looking closer to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic for tropical development for the remainder of the season.
Hurricane season continues through the end of November and several additional tropical systems are expected over the next nine weeks.
