A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Franklin to Dixie County. Overall, the threat of moderate coastal flooding has decreased compared to yesterday, but still remains possible.
· The Gale Warning has been extended in time through Sunday.
· Forecast rain amounts for the event have decreased slightly, but still remain significant with 2-4 inches expected over portions of the area with localized higher amounts.
· The Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall remains in place for portions of southern Georgia, the Florida panhandle, and the Florida big bend.
· A Flood Watch for Saturday night may still be required in future forecasts.
· A 2-page PDF Briefing Packet as well as other graphics are attached.
Overview:
The track of the Gulf Low will play a pivotal role in the impacts expected to the area. With a more northwestward track through the Florida Big Bend, the region can expect more impacts, including heavy rainfall, strong inland and marine winds, and possible minor to moderate coastal flooding (particularly across Apalachee Bay). However, a more southward track towards the Nature Coast and Tampa would greatly reduce our coastal flood threat. The latest guidance as of Thursday night leans towards the more southern track.Marine – Regardless of the track, dangerous marine conditions with Gale conditions (Sustained Surface winds or frequent gusts of 34 knots [39 mph] to 47 knots [54 mph]) are expected to continue offshore, with Storm-force gusts (Sustained surface winds or frequent gusts of 48 knots [55 mph] or greater) possible for the marine zones on Saturday and Sunday. Strong and frequent rip currents with dangerous surf are also a concern.Coastal Flooding – This system could bring minor to moderate coastal flooding across Apalachee Bay. The magnitude will be contingent on the Low’s track, intensity, and timing with respect to the tidal cycles. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Franklin to Dixie County – valid Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. Overall, there is more consensus from the Thursday night guidance that the low may track far enough south to reduce the coastal flood threat for Franklin, Wakulla, and Jefferson counties, but the watch will remain in place pending additional guidance later this afternoon to confirm the trend.Rainfall – Generally, widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with localized higher amounts are possible across the area. Based on the Thursday night guidance, the highest amounts are expected to be across the Florida big bend and south central Georgia. However, there is still some uncertainty with the location and magnitudes. While widespread river flooding is not expected, smaller creeks and streams, including the Ochlockonee River, Aucilla River, and the Sopchoppy River, may be more vulnerable if heavy rain falls over these basins.Winds – Regardless of the low track, a tightening surface pressure gradient in association with the strengthening of the surface low and surface high pressure to the north of the region will lead to gusty winds Saturday through Monday morning. Forecast gusts for inland locations are 25-35 mph with occasional peak gusts of 40 mph possible. Given saturated soils from recent heavy rains, trees may be more susceptible to fall in strong winds.
Severe Weather – A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is in place over the extreme Southeast FL Big Bend in the Day 2 Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center. This threat is primarily for Saturday night. The most likely locations to experience severe weather are east of the Gulf Low’s track with isolated tornadoes being the primary concern.
