Two weather systems will affect the region through early next week. The first system which starts tonight bears watching, but the second system on Monday night and Tuesday has potential to be a significant severe weather event, plus other impacts too.
Two briefing packets are attached to focus separately on each event, plus an overall timeline graphic.
#1: Tonight / Saturday Morning:
· Isolated Severe Storms Possible, especially for coastal communities. Main threats: locally damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms.
· Wind Advisory for communities along the Emerald Coast and Forgotten Coast: Gusts 40-45 mph late tonight.
· High Surf Advisory at the beaches: Surf Heights up to 8 feet on Saturday.
· 1-2 inches of rain, locally up to 4 inches. Local runoff issues possible.
· Gale-force winds over the Gulf
#2: Monday night/Tuesday: This could be a significant event
· Odds continue to increase for a significant severe weather event. All modes of severe weather are possible, including:
o Several tornadoes – possibly strong,
o Damaging gusts, and
o Hail.
o The Storm Prediction Center continues to carry 15-29 percent severe weather chances in the Day 4-5 outlooks for Monday night and Tuesday morning. This corresponds with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms. Confidence has increased enough to include mentioning the possibility of a strong tornado. As certainty in timing and geographic placement grows further, there is room to get a targeted upgrade in the risk level in future outlook updates.
· Outside thunderstorms, damaging general winds, with gusts 40-55 mph
· 2-4 inches of rain, locally 4-6 inches. Isolated Flash Flooding possible. Multiple rivers could reach minor flood stage next week.
· Solid gale-force winds (34+ knots) expected over the Gulf. Storm-force gusts (48+ knots) possible.
· Coastal Flooding is expected, especially on shorelines around Apalachee Bay.
· Dangerous High Surf and life-threatening rip currents expected. Beach erosion possible.
The system early next week (Monday night/Tuesday) is of greatest concern. Agreement among numerous models remains unusually strong. Therefore, confidence in the forecast is higher than normal, even at 4 days out.
