An upper-level disturbance will likely bring a complex scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the far Western Panhandle tonight and early Friday morning; however, a few strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are then forecast to develop and move eastward through the Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the next low-pressure system as it lifts the frontal boundary over Central Florida northward.
Uncertainty surrounds the timing and intensity of this second round of active weather as it will depend on how the early-morning system evolves. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather for the Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending across the Big Bend Friday.
The more organized thunderstorm activity may produce a scattered damaging wind gusts, instances of large hail, an isolated brief tornado or two, and heavy rainfall rates. These storms may develop a more linear structure, shifting the primary concerns to damaging wind.
A third line of strong to severe thunderstorms may make its way into the Panhandle early Saturday morning ahead of another frontal boundary associated with the low-pressure system, but it appears more likely to move through during the day Saturday.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible along the far Western Panhandle tonight with the first round of showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level disturbance passes through.
•The more organized thunderstorm activity in the second round of activity Friday afternoon and evening may produce a scattered damaging wind gusts (45-65 mph), instances of large hail (1-1.5” in diameter, or quarter to golf ball-size), an isolated brief tornado or two, and heavy rainfall rates with damaging wind gusts becoming the primary threat should a more linear structure develop.
•Flooding and ponding water over already saturated grounds, low-lying/poor drainage areas, and urban areas will be possible along the Panhandle Friday (Slight to Moderate Risk for Flash Flooding – level 2-3 of 4).
•Heavy rainfall earlier in the week has led to water levels increases along already elevated North Florida rivers, waterways, creek/streams. Additional heavy rainfall across the region may push several rivers and waterways near or into Minor Flood Stage.
•A River Flood Warning has been issued for the Ochlockonee River near Concord (CR-12) from this afternoon (5/16) through Sunday afternoon (5/19) as minor flooding is forecast.
•Power outages, downed trees/limbs, and damage to structures (especially mobile/manufactured homes) may be possible. Tornadoes may cause localized greater impacts to structures and infrastructure.
•A look ahead – A third line of strong to severe thunderstorms may make its way into the Panhandle Saturday ahead of another frontal boundary associated with the low-pressure system, but its development and evolution will be highly dependent on how Friday’s active weather pattern unfolds.
•The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is also outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Florida Panhandle and into the Northern Peninsula.
•The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Florida Panhandle Saturday with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending into the Suwannee Valley.
