Hurricane Francine is expected to make landfall this evening, Wednesday, September 11, 2024, along the Louisiana coast. The core hurricane impacts will remain well west of our region, but the tri-state area will experience peripheral impacts on Wednesday and Thursday that include:
· Tornadoes Possible
· Scattered Flash Flooding
· Coastal and Marine Hazards
See the attached three-pager.
Key Messages:
· The chance for a few tropical tornadoes has increased more late Wednesday night into Thursday.
· Locally heavy rainfall possible across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia this evening into Thursday, resulting in scattered flash flooding. A Flood Watch is now in effect for parts of the Florida Panhandle.
· High surf of 5 to 8 feet along Emerald Coast beaches will pick up on Wednesday and then peak on Thursday, leading to life-threatening rip currents.
· Beach erosion and minor coastal flooding are possible along the Panhandle Coast during times of high tide. The most significant high tide will come around 3 am CDT on Thursday.
Overview:
At 4 am CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Francine was centered over the northwestern Gulf, and will make landfall along the Louisiana coast this evening. This will keep core hurricane impacts well west of our region, but the tri-state area — particularly the eastern Florida Panhandle — will get several types of peripheral impacts. Any eastward shifts in the forecast track or intensity of Francine will further increase these peripheral impacts.
* Tornadoes:
Tornadoes are a growing concern as well, within the outer bands of Francine that move into our area. Confidence in the tornado threat is highest in the Florida Panhandle, where there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather late Wednesday into Thursday morning as a warm front lifts inland.
The tornado threat continues into Thursday with much of the forecast area from Cuthbert to Tallahassee westward outlined in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather through Thursday evening with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) east of that line. Tornado-favored wind shear will also be maximized near the warm front, which will be advancing inland through the day.
* Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding:
The rainfall forecast has remained the same since yesterday, and the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has expanded to cover the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) elsewhere. Given the possibility of training heavy rainbands, we have issued a Flood Watch for parts of the Florida Panhandle where there is slightly higher confidence in the possibility of flash flooding. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with localized totals of 8 inches are possible in the watch area with 1 to 3 inches possible elsewhere.
* Beach and Marine Hazards:
Surf will increase through today, then peak on Thursday. Surf heights of 5 to 8 feet from Gulf County westward will lead to life-threatening rip currents at beaches, even for experienced surfers and swimmers. The onshore push of water from high surf and onshore wind will bring water levels of 1 to 2 feet above normally dry ground during times of high tide. The most concerning high tide will come around 3 am CDT on Thursday. These water levels typically flood into beach access parking areas, overwash low lying coastal adjacent roads and other beachfront areas. In addition, high surf will lead to beach erosion.
