Overview:
We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather that could develop across the northwest Caribbean Sea or Yucatan Channel sometime next week.
Overview:
A broad area of low pressure has a medium (40%) chance of developing in the northwest Caribbean Sea or Yucatan channel next week. Global models and ensembles continue to indicate the potential for some type of tropical development but they currently exhibit significant spread and run-to-run variability. It remains too early to determine any potential impacts to the area as this type of genesis pathway tends to develop slowly and is prone to very large uncertainties in track and intensity at these long lead times.
Please continue to closely monitor the situation. Be careful about social media posts showing dire looking storm tracks/positions, and don’t lock-in/anchor on any model as they will change from run-to-run. We will continue to update you as necessary with respect to this system. Our next email update will be Monday unless things change significantly between now and then.
This is the 2am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook for September 20th.
