The United States has experienced three high-voter-turnout elections in recent years, specifically those held in 2018, 2020 and 2022.
Notably, the 2020 presidential election saw an unprecedented level of participation, with approximately two-thirds (66%) of eligible voters casting their ballots- a rate unmatched since 1900.
The 2018 midterm election also achieved impressive numbers, boasting a turnout rate of 49%, which surpassed all previous midterms dating back to 1914.
Even the slightly lower turnout rate of 46% in the 2022 elections still outpaced every midterm election since 1970.
Among adults who have cast ballots at least once during this period, there is an even split between those identifying as Democrats or independents leaning Democratic (48%), and Republicans or independent leaners affiliated with the Republican Party (also 48%).
The subset that has voted in all three elections shows a slightly more pronounced divide: 49% identify as Democrats, while 50% are Republicans.
In contrast, individuals who have not participated in any of these elections tend to skew Republican by a margin of 46% to 41%.
While some individuals consistently cast ballots or abstain from voting altogether, many others exhibit an intermittent pattern of participation.
Given the highly polarized nature of U.S. politics, these occasional voters often hold significant sway in determining election outcomes and influencing shifts in public support for the two major political parties between elections.
The first group, comprising about 8% of citizens, voted in both the 2018 and 2020 elections but skipped the 2022 election; this group has a Democratic majority (55%) to Republican minority (40%).
A second group, also around 8%, voted in the 2020 and 2022 elections but did not participate in the 2018 midterm; within this group, Republicans hold a slight edge over Democrats (57% vs. 40%).
The third group, making up about 12% of adults, voted only once- specifically in the 2020 election- and then opted out of both the 2018 and 2022 midterms; among these individuals, there is roughly equal representation between Democratic (46%) and Republican (43%) voters.
The prevalence of intermittent voters and chronic non-voters presents an opportunity for both political parties to tap into a sizable pool of potential supporters who are not consistently engaged in the electoral process.
