Tropical Storm Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight near western Cuba, while moving generally northwest. A track into the Southern Gulf is then expected late Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a left turn into the Central Gulf from Friday into the weekend.
Overview:
As of 4AM EST, Tropical Storm Rafael was located near Jamaica, with max sustained winds of 60 mph. Rafael was moving northwest at 13 mph. The forecast track shows a general northwest motion the next couple days across the Western Caribbean while on a strengthening trend. Forecast confidence decreases once the system enters the Central Gulf, as the evolution will depend on how much weakening Rafael undergoes in a more hostile environment (increasing wind shear and cooler waters) and the large-scale steering pattern. For example, a slower weakening would favor a more right-hand track, while faster weakening would yield a leftward track. The latter scenario appears most feasible at this time, which would lessen the chances of a landfall along the northeast Gulf Coast, but likely result in a sloppy lopsided system capable of peripheral impacts.
Regardless of the evolution, expect increasing rain chances late tonight through Thursday. Wednesday’s wet weather ramp up will be the result of surging tropical moisture well in advance of Rafael. Although much of the rain will be a welcome sight, given the longest dry spell of the year, periods of heavy rain will be capable of localized flooding or runoff issues. Forecast amounts this week are 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 to 7 inches. The highest values are focused over Southwest Georgia, and are subject to additional changes (up or down). The Weather Prediction Center upgraded all of Southwest Georgia to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) holding for the remainder of the Tri-State area in their Day 2 & 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook – valid Wednesday AM to Friday AM.
Other expected impacts are hazardous marine & beach conditions developing via long-period southerly swells and increasing winds mid to late week. Mariners should prepare for strong winds and high seas, while beaches should see frequent dangerous rip currents, and high surf.
Rafael will make its closest approach to the Florida Panhandle around Friday. For now, tropical storm conditions should remain confined to the offshore Gulf waters (25-35 percent chance). There is currently a low chance (10-20 percent) of tropical storm force winds spreading onshore into coastal communities. If Rafael tracks to the right of the current forecast, then chances for tropical storm conditions increase for coastal communities late this week.
Looking ahead, the potential for minor coastal flooding will need to be assessed. Tides have already been running high in recent days.
