Rafael is now a hurricane and continues to strengthen as it approaches western Cuba, while moving generally northwest. A track into the Southeastern Gulf is then expected late tonight, followed by a left turn into the Central Gulf from Thursday into the weekend. A nudge to the south and west of the forecast track continues this morning.
Overview:
Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen this morning, but National Hurricane Center forecasts still keep Rafael away from the area as it moves into the central Gulf late Thursday into Friday. Through Thursday afternoon, the main forecast concerns revolve around heavy rain potential as a very anomalous moist air mass lifts north into the tri-state region today. Widespread rainfall amounts across the area will range from 1 to 3 inches, but locally higher amounts up to 8 inches are possible. The highest probability for flash flooding potential appears to be across southwest Georgia where a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for flash flooding is possible today into Thursday. A flood watch is now in effect for our northern tier of southwest Georgia counties. Elsewhere, a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of flash flooding is possible.
Rain likely begins this morning with the heaviest rains falling in the afternoon and evening hours. Main forecast uncertainty through Thursday will be if the heavy rainfall potential continues overnight and into Thursday morning. Riverine flooding is not likely during this event given the very dry antecedent conditions and high rainfall amounts required (7+ inches) to bring any appreciable response to area rivers.
