Conditions are favorable for steady strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core. Computer forecast models are in good agreement that the system is forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 hours and continue to strengthen until it reaches Cuba. Once over the central Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is likely to encounter increasing wind shear, dry air, and cooler water temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart over the northern Gulf waters.
The National Hurricane Center points:
- While the greatest probabilities (shaded) for tropical storm-force conditions are forecast to remain to the west of the Florida Peninsula, tropical storm-force conditions along the Lower and Middle Keys will be possible as Rafael moves northwestward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
- Rafael is a lopsided system with most of its thunderstorm activity and gusty winds displaced east of its center; trends within the size of the wind field will continue to be monitored as Rafael emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as localized tropical storm-force conditions may brush the Southwest Florida Coast.
•Tropical storm-force conditions will most likely arrive along the Florida Keys during the mid-to-late daytime hours Wednesday.
•Tropical storm-force conditions could arrive as early as Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning along the Florida Keys
•This is a reminder that impacts can still extend well beyond the forecast cone!
•As Rafael emerges over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico, stronger upper-level winds will likely displace much of the system’s shower and thunderstorm activity east of its center (toward Florida’s Gulf Coast). Locally gusty winds will be possible along many Florida coastlines through the week.
-Rain chances will begin to increase over the southern Florida Peninsula today (45-70% chance of rain), becoming increasingly numerous further north by Wednesday.
-Exact rainfall totals and the placement of heavy rainfall will remain track dependent; however, generally 2-3” of rain can be expected with locally higher amounts of 3-6” possible.
-The heaviest rainfall totals over the next 7-day forecast period appears to reside along the eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley, courtesy of Rafael and the approaching frontal system.
