How Virginia Gubernatorial Winner Glenn Youngkin Kept Trump at Arm’s Length, But on His Side

By | November 7, 2021

When Donald Trump released a statement suggesting he was planning a trip to Virginia last week, aides to Republican Glenn Youngkin’s campaign for governor panicked.

Mr. Youngkin had, for months, navigated the narrow path between embracing the former Republican president’s policies without being drawn into a debate about Mr. Trump himself. The two men held private phone calls in recent weeks, but Mr. Trump hadn’t said anything about a trip to Virginia.

According to Republicans who recalled the moment from Mr. Trump’s home in Florida and Mr. Youngkin’s headquarters in Chantilly, Va., the statement sparked a series of calls between the two camps. The message from Mar-a-Lago: Mr. Trump knew one of his rallies wouldn’t help Mr. Youngkin, and the statement was only intended to troll the liberals and critics in the media.

Mr. Youngkin’s campaign went back to work; Mr. Trump continued to support him from the sidelines. And, on Tuesday, Mr. Youngkin claimed the party’s signature victory on a night of notable Republican achievements.

He managed a feat other Republican candidates will seek to emulate—keeping the Trump-loyal Republican base energized while also attracting swing voters. While Mr. Youngkin’s opponent, Democrat Terry McAuliffe, tried to make the election about Mr. Trump, many voters said the former president didn’t factor in their decisions.

Republicans have performed poorly under Mr. Trump’s stewardship, losing control of the White House, Senate and House in just four years. He lost Virginia by more than 10 points in 2020—the largest margin for any presidential candidate in three decades—and polls show he remains an unpopular figure in the state.

Mr. Youngkin’s strategy, which underscored the importance of tailoring campaigns to match the unique issues in each state, combined with Mr. Trump’s willingness to remain at least partly out of the spotlight showed how the former president and Republican candidates uneasily can coexist.

The question heading into the 2022 midterms—and the party’s bid to reclaim the White House in 2024—was how long the political symbiosis lasts. Even Republicans close to Mr. Trump weren’t sure how long the bonhomie inside the party would hold.

“Voters were sending an overwhelming message about their frustration with the Biden administration, and if you’re thinking about running in 2022 or 2024, you’re going to take note of that,” said Marc Short, former Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff.

Despite his own loss in 2020 and defeats in congressional elections in 2018, Mr. Trump has strengthened his hold on the party. Republican primary candidates have sought his endorsement, and some GOP incumbents he has targeted have chosen to retire rather than face his wrath.

Mr. Youngkin won the Republican nomination in Virginia via a party convention and didn’t spend an extended period of time seeking to demonstrate his allegiance to Mr. Trump—something Republican candidates are doing now in some key midterm contests, such as the party’s Ohio Senate primary.

Mr. Youngkin executed a nuanced approach on the issue that Mr. Trump has said should be the priority for Republican candidates: combating voter fraud, which he claims cost him the 2020 election. Mr. Youngkin said Mr. Biden legitimately won the White House—no credible evidence suggests Mr. Trump was cheated out of a victory—while adding that the election showed voting security needed improvement.

Xochitl Hinojosa, a Democratic strategist, said the elections Tuesday served as a warning to her party to deliver on President Biden’s promises, but Mr. Youngkin’s blueprint might be difficult for other Republicans to replicate.

“The reality is that many Republican candidates have already defined themselves as antivaxers, pro-abortion ban, anti-voting rights and as pro-Trump conspiracy theorists when it comes to the last election,” said Ms. Hinosa, a former Democratic National Committee communications director. “It’s a little too late for them to run as moderates.”

In Virginia, Mr. Trump showed rare restraint. Part of his thinking was that having a Republican in the governor’s office would be more helpful in 2024 if he decides to run again for president, according to people who have spoken to him.

The political teams for Mr. Trump and Mr. Youngkin both understood there would be almost no room for error for a Republican to win statewide in Virginia for the first time in 12 years.

The former president also viewed the calculation as a rare win-win for him. If Mr. Youngkin lost, it would be because he didn’t embrace Mr. Trump more overtly. If he won, then Mr. Trump could claim credit for helping.

Others around Mr. Trump said smaller factors—but no less significant— were also at play for the former president. Mr. Youngkin, 54 years old, built a personal net worth of hundreds of millions of dollars as former chief executive of the Carlyle Group, a business background that appealed to Mr. Trump.

A former reality TV star and branding magnate, Mr. Trump is blunt about his view of the importance of a candidate’s physical appearance. He viewed Mr. Youngkin as a pick from central casting: a 6-foot-7-inch former college basketball player with a boyish grin, side-swept brown hair, and a photogenic family that includes his wife of 26 years, Suzanne, and four children, all young adults.

For Mr. Youngkin, he was adamant from the start about running his own race. To help navigate the Trump elements, he had in his corner Jeff Roe. Mr. Roe, his chief strategist, ran the longest Republican campaign against Mr. Trump when he managed Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential bid.

“Take any one of those pieces away and this probably doesn’t come across the finish line the same way,” one Republican said.

In an interview Saturday night on Fox News, Mr. Trump reiterated his support for Mr. Youngkin amid critics pointing out that the Virginian’s late surge was without overt help from the former president.

Mr. Trump issued statements over the weekend that the Youngkin team viewed as helpful. On Monday, Mr. Trump hosted a discreet “tele-rally”—essentially a conference call with supporters to urge them to vote for Mr. Youngkin—although Mr. Youngkin himself didn’t join, instead holding his own rally in Leesburg, Va.

Mr. Youngkin, meanwhile, campaigned as a Trump Republican, but on his own terms. His policies, such as opposing critical race theory in public schools, also animated Trump Republicans. But he maintained his brand as a political outsider focused on local issues that he could control from the governor’s office.

More than one-third of the TV ads from Mr. McAuliffe’s campaign—more than any other issue—focused on Mr. Trump, according to data compiled by AdImpact, a company that tracks advertising. A plurality of Mr. Youngkin’s spots, 42%, centered on education and crime.

“That’s one of the lessons from this: Every election is different and every state is different, and if voters believe you want to talk about something relevant to their lives—and not about political punditry—then they’re happy to hear it,” said Will Ritter, one of Mr. Youngkin’s ad-makers and a senior adviser.

The strategy worked. Mr. Youngkin won a larger share of the state’s 2020 Biden voters than Mr. McAuliffe won of Mr. Trump’s voters, according to the AP VoteCast survey. Craig DiSesa, the president of The Middle Revolution, a Republican-leaning political-action committee that was helping turn out voters for state legislative candidates in the state, said Mr. Trump was a non-factor when the group knocked on Virginians’ doors.

“I saw Youngkin as his own man cutting his own path,” said Republican voter Tom Wunderlich, a 76-year-old retired Marine lieutenant colonel who lives in Virginia Beach. “I don’t think he is in any way controlled by or closely associated with Trump—not anywhere near like McAuliffe was with Biden.”

When Mr. Youngkin won, Mr. Trump claimed credit, saying that the governor-elect wouldn’t have won without his supporters. Mr. Trump’s team sent email and text messages to his own supporters trying to raise money off Mr. Youngkin’s victory.

“Without you, he would not have been close to winning,” Mr. Trump wrote in one appeal.

Mr. Youngkin continued to stick to local issues. In his victory speech, he thanked the state’s voters and his family, but he didn’t mention Mr. Trump or the word “Republican.” He talked about his plan to provide more public school choices, cut taxes and create 400,000 more jobs.

“Together, we will change the trajectory of this Commonwealth,” he told supporters early Wednesday morning at his election night party in Chantilly, Va. “And friends, we are going to start that transformation on day one.”

Later on Wednesday, Mr. Trump called Mr. Youngkin to congratulate him.