As of the 5:00 PM EDT advisory, Tropical Storm Bertha is located 105 miles west-southwest of Panama City, Florida and is moving northwestward at 6 mph.
A slow northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the west by the middle part of this week.
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected for the rest of the day today, followed by gradual weakening starting tomorrow morning as the storm continues to struggle with dry air and northerly wind shear.
Bertha will continue to bring periods of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, dangerous surf, and life-threatening rip currents to the Florida Gulf Coast as it moves off to the northwest this week.
Florida Outlook:
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for much of the Panhandle coastline from the Bay/Gulf County line to the FL/AL border.
Breezy to gusty winds are expected along much of the Panhandle and Big Bend coast with sustained winds of 20-30 mph and wind gusts upwards of 35-45 mph. A Wind Advisory covers coastal Wakulla, Franklin and Gulf counties while the Tropical Storm Warning covers the remainder of the coastal Panhandle for these gusty winds.
Stronger wind gusts upwards of 45-60 mph may accompany the strongest embedded thunderstorm activity within the outer rain bands of Bertha. Additionally, a brief waterspout or tornado cannot be ruled out across the Big Bend and Panhandle as these bands rotate onshore.
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding remains outlooked across the Panhandle and Big Bend today and tomorrow in anticipation of multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with the outer rain bands of Bertha.
A general 1-2 inches of rain is expected still to come, focused along the Panhandle and Big Bend coast nearer to the center of Bertha. Locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” cannot be ruled out, especially where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur within bands of showers and thunderstorms rotating around Bertha.
Storm surge is forecast to peak at 1-3’ across portions of the Big Bend this week and 1-2’ for all Panhandle shorelines. This may lead to areas of nuisance to minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for much of the Panhandle and Big Bend coast.
High Surf Warnings are in effect for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties for dangerous high surf near 8-11’ beginning this afternoon. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties where waves will reach 6-10’ today and tomorrow, with a few waves upwards of 12’ possible within the surf zone. Instances of minor beach erosion are possible for susceptible Panhandle beaches.
A high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and Big Bend beaches through the week. A high risk across the West Coast will diminish to a moderate risk by Thursday and Friday.
The next name on the list is Cristobal.
