A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. This system poses no threat to Florida.
Morning satellite imagery indicates that Invest 92L has become significantly more disorganized compared to yesterday with no closed low-level circulation. Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well north and west of the center of the system.
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 94L remains poorly organized this morning with showers and thunderstorms displaced well off to the north and west of the center of circulation. The system could gradually organize this weekend and early next week.
Invest 92L’s model guidance remains in agreement that the system will take a westerly track into the Western Caribbean. Invest 92L will remain an open wave as it tracks into the Western Caribbean and eventually dissipate as it succumbs to strong vertical wind shear.
Computer model guidance indicates that, if Invest 94L remains sufficiently organized, a track towards the west and eventually northwest is possible towards the beginning of next week. An eventual bend back towards the west is expected thereafter, if Invest 94L remains an organized system. Should Invest 94L struggle to organize or maintain persistent thunderstorm activity, a more southerly track following in the path of 92L is more likely, which could include the system dissipating entirely. Very few ensemble members indicate strengthening of Invest 94L into a formidable system currently, and it is expected to struggle with dry air and shear like 92L.
Extremely unfavorable vertical wind shear (50-70kts +) will be in place across the Caribbean and portions of the central Atlantic. 92L and 94L are both expected to enter this area of high shear, where both would rapidly weaken as they track generally west to west-northwestward.
