Dexter continues to weaken as it moves northeast across the North Atlantic. It’s likely to become a large non-tropical storm & will bring areas of rain & wind to northwestern Europe next week.
The NHC still is looking at a 50% chance of development with a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic now as we move into the weekend & next week. Model tracks are still not decided on how far west this gets, but I would say that overall, a turn to the north into the Central Atlantic is more favored right now. Since there is no storm there yet, we won’t really know until a center forms & its location is input into the models.
Next up after the wave is that area of yellow near the southeast US coast. Models continue to show a weak low pressure developing here by the end of the weak. It will either be VERY weak or maybe at the most a tropical depression. The EURO is consistent in bringing this system toward eastern North Carolina or the OBX area before moving it NE into the Atlantic. It’ll increase rain chances & clouds across the Carolinas but does not look like anything to worry about.
OFF THE MAP:
There are a couple of features worth noting that the NHC is not highlighting.
The first is what look to be a weak low pressure that will develop in the eastern Gulf this weekend. Both the EURO & GFS show this feature as it moves north from Cuba toward the Florida panhandle Friday to Sunday. The reason the NHC is not showing this on their map is likely b/c none of the models actually develop it into a noteworthy tropical system with the EURO the most agressvie, giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression.
The presence of this weak low, however, will cause more of a southeast wind across the state this weekend & increase levels of tropical moisture. In August, that means clouds & more rain. Yep, looks pretty wet across parts of Florida this weekend, especially the western half of the peninsula.
Beyond all this is yet another strong tropical wave that will come off the West African coast in a few days. The models all pick up on this & suggest this could be the first storm of the season that we’ll track across the Atlantic basin, taking more of a south track potentially toward the Islands or the Caribbean. Nothing specific on this as it’s just a twinkle in the model’s eyes, but definitely something worth noting.
