The NHC just bumped up odds to 70% and are going red for a tropical wave, which means development is currently likely. Next names are #Fernand and #Gabrielle. Here are some thoughts as of Wednesday evening:
1. Hurricane #Erin, now the size of Texas, will bring tropical storm conditions to coastal North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland on Thursday…then exit Friday. Erin will brush the region with some gusty wind, large waves, coastal flooding and a surge of 1 – 4 feet (depending on location) plus erosion. As it moves away from the United States, its tropical storm-force wind field will expand to over 600 miles in diameter!
2. The tropical wave in red with currently a 70% chance of development has taken a more positive turn…literally. Over the past several days, almost all models have curved the path north in the Atlantic even if it forms. At this point, it’s unlikely to directly impact the United States. Eastern Canada should still monitor the storm.
3. #Invest99L (an area we are investigating) has shown some organization throughout the day, featured on the far right. What you’ll notice though as we go into time, most of the model tracks and lines disappear. Why is that? Invest 99L will be encountering unfavorable ingredients Friday into the weekend, especially dry air. *IF* it can survive, it will likely head into the Caribbean. Model majority has this falling apart, but it’s still early. We’ll see how it handles those dynamics ahead. As always, avoid models going beyond 7-10 days out.
