NHC has increased the chance of development in the orange area overnight to 60% over the next 7 days.
All the models bring this next tropical wave to hurricane intensity over the next week or so in the central Atlantic.
The ensemble runs of each model still show a rather wide range of turn options in the lifespan of this system. The big variety here is mainly due to the fact that there is no system yet. There is no pinned-down center. Where that system forms will have an impact on the track. The intensity may also impact how early or late a turn happens.
Generally, the track would be WNW for several days while the storm, likely Gabrielle at that point, intensifies. There are indications that the large area of high pressure to the north will weaken a bit, producing an exit point for the storm by the weekend. This continues to indicate that a turn to the north and eventually NE, away from the US east coast, is still very possible by the weekend.
Plenty of time to watch this. This is not a concern right now. As the system develops, expect some shifts in the data as the models lock in on a path.
