1) Gulf & Florida: A stationary front is lingering over the region, providing a focus for cyclogenesis. Short-range models show a weak low possibly forming off Florida’s east coast Mon/Tue, with a chance of TD development moving NE. Another weak low may try to form in the Gulf & bring rain to Florida. Homegrown systems like this are common in early September.
2) African Wave: A strong tropical wave has just moved off Africa. Model ensembles suggest gradual development as it crosses the Atlantic on a WNW track. If it were to reach the U.S., the earliest timing would be around September 12.
Bottom line: No threats right now, but both areas warrant watching.
