Wednesday (Oct. 22) models shown below, of them all only 1.4% show a landfall from expected hurricane Melissa in Florida. Continue to be good news for the Sunshine State regarding a direct threat. But not good news for those in the path.
Still could be fringe east coast FL impacts though. A cold front should hold the core safely away and east from landfalling in FL, but we will keep watch and not rule out any changes prematurely.
Every thin red line below is a version of the Euro, American GFS, and Canadian weather models for the possible path of Melissa.
This has the potential to become a Cat. 4+ hurricane if it tracks south and west of Jamaica like the consensus of the models shows today. A track into Jamaica or western Haiti would still be a hurricane, but weaker and a much more massive flood event.
Mean of the models is across Cuba then Between Nassau and the Turks and Caicos early-mid next week as a major hurricane.
Notice though there are several models closer to Nassau, and therefore could theoretically have more direct impact in south Florida given how large the storm may end up.
Points here being there are major concerns for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas at this time. Will have to watch if any jet stream shenanigans come into play around Halloween if the system tries to get close to New England and New York or not. But for now, that is way to far out to speculate further.
Thankful for that trough and cold front in the eastern U.S. next week but where the storm does hit could be very bad.
