Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather introduced for portions of SE Alabama and the extreme western FL Panhandle in the Day 1 Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center – valid Wednesday AM to Thursday AM. Bulk of the storm activity is late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook – Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across the Wiregrass Region with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) extending to an Albany-Donalsonville-Panama City line. Valid Wednesday AM to Thursday AM. Bulk of rain to fall late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather mainly west of the I-75 corridor and Eastern FL Big Bend in the Day 2 Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center – valid Thursday AM to Friday AM. Bulk of the storm activity is Thursday.
Estimated timing for main line of storms – Thursday morning-afternoon
SE Alabama & FL Panhandle (1AM to 5AM CST)
Florida Big Bend & SW Georgia (6AM to 10AM EST)
South-Central Georgia & Suwannee Valley (10AM to 2PM EST)
The equivalent of a Slight Risk for severe weather stretches along/NW of a Dothan to DeFuniak Springs line in the Day 4 Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center – valid Saturday AM to Sunday AM.
Bottom Line:
An active weather pattern is unfolding with multiple frontal systems traversing the region through next week. Severe weather and heavy rain potential will be the primary concerns, beginning as soon as early Thursday morning. The next round of activity is this weekend, particularly Sunday.
Overview:
A front moving across the Tri-State area Thursday-Thursday night introduces a dual threat for potentially isolated severe weather and heavy rain:
An organized line of storms will pose a damaging wind (1) and tornado (2) threat mainly Thursday morning-afternoon for the western two-thirds of the Tri-State area. Note: isolated cells, some of which may rotate, are likely to develop ahead of the main line as soon as Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across the Wiregrass in the Day 2 Outlook by the Weather Prediction Center – valid Thursday AM to Friday AM. Localized nuisance and/or flash flooding would be the main concern. Bulk of rain to fall on Thursday.
Other anticipated threats are hazardous beach & boating conditions, and breezy non-thunderstorm winds/gusts of 25-35 mph.
Looking Ahead:
The next front to affect the region arrives this weekend and is expected to be stronger than its predecessor. Severe weather concerns therefore return and appear to be greater than the couple days prior. Once this weekend’s system exits, much cooler conditions introduce cold-weather sheltering concerns Monday-Tuesday, 2/17-2/18. Yet another storm system takes shape around mid next week and looks to pose similar threats.
