Hurricane Erin’s Eye is clearing out and strengthening on Monday morning, August 18, 2025.
The Tropical Wave has a 50% chance for development and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas
Hurricane Erin’s eye is clearing out and winds have increased to 130mph. Pressure has dropped to 933mb and is forecast remain offshore.
There has been some increase in convection with the tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic and development chance have increased to 50%.
Looking ahead, the 2 primary global computer models are beginning to provide insight on the next potential tropical disturbance behind Erin (yellow hatched area in top image). Because this is over 10 days away, these are the only computer models that currently provide data that far into the future, but we must take it with a grain of salt. These are two deterministic runs and a myriad of things can change between now and 10 days from now.
The GFS appears adamant about the next tropical cyclone venturing into the Gulf while the ECMWF has the disturbance follow almost the same track as Erin in the Atlantic. This yields about a 900-mile spread between these two computer models which doesn’t provide us much in the way of any forecast confidence. What we can assume, is if the next tropical disturbance (yellow hatched area) develops further south than Erin, it wouldn’t feel the force from the high pressure over the Atlantic as much and would have a higher chance of moving more westward and towards the Caribbean/Gulf. Regardless of what may transpire, we are approaching the peak of hurricane season, and everyone is urged to be prepared for whatever may come this way.
