Melissa has made the turn to the north to northeast as expected and the monster storm has strengthened again in terms of air pressure. It still has sustained winds at 175 mph.
Imagine a hurricane worse than Katrina, Andrew, Harvey, Ian, Michael, or Maria (which gutted Puerto Rico in 2017), that is what we are dealing with here. There are some early signs that an eye wall replacement cycle may be starting.
This is a natural cycle of a hurricane that can slightly weaken a storm temporarily. This could limit Melissa from strengthening anymore or even weaken it slightly later this morning. With that said, it is still likely that this storm will make landfall late morning to mid-day as a category 5 storm.
Long story short…this is really bad. My plea to you is that you remember Jamaica when everyone else forgets. The residents of Jamaica (and many stranded Americans) need our prayers today.
They will need a lot of help in the months ahead. Soon the news headlines will shift to something else, but please don’t forget when those cameras shift to something else.
Melissa is advancing slowly north-northeastward at 025/4 kt. Over the next several days, the hurricane is anticipated to accelerate northeastward within the flow ahead of an amplifying trough over the southeastern U.S. This steering flow will bring the core of Melissa across Jamaica today, over eastern Cuba early Wednesday, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.
Then, the hurricane is forecast to pass near Bermuda Thursday night or early Friday. Overall, the near-term NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous one. At 72-120 h, the official forecast was adjusted to the left of the previous prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aids and Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.
Near-term intensity fluctuations are possible this morning and will likely be driven by internal dynamic processes like eyewall replacement cycles. Regardless, #Melissa will reach #Jamaica as an extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 h.
While land interaction with Jamaica and eastern #Cuba is expected to cause some weakening, Melissa is still forecast to pass over portions of the #Bahamas as a strong hurricane on Wednesday. Increasing westerly shear is likely to impact Melissa later this week while the hurricane accelerates toward higher latitudes.
As a result, the hurricane is forecast to have a broader and asymmetric wind field when it passes near #Bermuda later this week. Some minor upward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast during the middle portion of the period in agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI aids.
Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.
