NHC continues to only show a low chance of development in that yellow area east of the Mid-Atlantic states over the next week. Most of the models do develop a low pressure here as it passes well SE of New England. It will not be a threat to land.
The orange area could develop our first stronger storm of the season. Models continue to show development over the weekend & into next week. A tropical storm or even a hurricane is very possible here. Most models, however, track this system north over the open Atlantic & show it will not be a threat to land.
Further out, data still pushes a strong tropical wave off the African coast with strong signs of likely development as it crosses the Atlantic. The track on this is a little farther south so it’s more likely this system would make it farther west. The Cliate Prediction Center actually has an elevated area for potential development next week into the third week of Aug east of the Islands. This is the region to watch.
Model tracks with this are all over the place & will continue to show this for several more. The location of this thing by Aug 18-20 could be anywhere from the north-central Atlantic to the Caribbean. Not helpful.
