MOST LIKELY LANDFALL LOCATION:
Between Treasure Beach & Savannah la Mar, Jamaica. The most reliable track models are Google Deepmind & ECMWF (NWP & AI).
This forecast track places most of Jamaica in the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. The silver lining is that if Melissa tracks farther west, wind impacts will lessen for the densely populated Kingston area.
IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT #MELISSA DOESN’T MAKE DIRECT LANDFALL IN JAMAICA?
The GFS (American), HWRF, CMC (Canadian), & Korean models have #Melissa skimming the west coast. Unfortunately, these are traditionally the less reliable models. So, a direct hit on Jamaica is the most likely scenario.
MOST LIKELY LANDFALL INTENSITY:
Cat 4 at sea level. The storm is expected to lose a bit of intensity as it approaches land. The high elevations of the Blue Mountains will have winds consistent with a Cat 5.
Precise landfall location is very important as #Melissa has a small windfield. Coastal winds near landfall will be around 140mph. Winds will decrease 1 mph every mile away from the eye.
