The countdown is on- coastal communities from the Gulf across the entire Eastern Seaboard are making final preparations for the start of Atlantic hurricane season- now just one month away.
A developing El Niño is expected to fully take hold this summer and dominate both the Atlantic and the Pacific basins- suppressing potential tropical development in the Atlantic, while supercharging storms in the Eastern Pacific, which begins its hurricane season on May 15.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, and historically, 97% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will form between those two dates.
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
During El Niño, above-average water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean produce strong winds that hinder tropical development in the Atlantic.
“The warmer waters and enhanced rising air across the Pacific create “hostile” upper-level winds that blow across the Caribbean and the Main Development Region (MDR),” the FOX Forecast Center said.
“These strong westerly winds can tilt or disrupt a developing storm’s structure, preventing intensification and promoting a more stable atmosphere.”
Those upper level winds generally rip apart developing tropical systems, preventing them from organizing into powerful hurricanes.
Furthermore, experts believe this El Niño could be much stronger than the average event, with computer forecast models from both NOAA and Columbia’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggesting that a “Super El Niño” could form this summer, which would only act to further strengthen those hostile winds.
The Atlantic basin averages 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. During El Niño years, those averages typically drop to roughly 10 storms and five hurricanes.
However, exactly when El Niño develops will play a key role in how much protection the Atlantic sees this season.
If El Niño does not emerge until late August or beyond, there will be a window of greater opportunity for hurricanes to form in the Gulf — a region where the majority of tropical development occurs during the first half of the season.
“Early in the season, particularly in June, ‘homegrown’ systems are most common,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
“These typically form in areas such as the Gulf and portions of the Southeast U.S. coastline.”
While these areas are more conducive for development, these systems also tend to be weaker since they have less water over which to strengthen.
The Forecast Center noted that June activity has generally been limited during El Niño years — meaning that if El Niño can take hold over the next two months, it could further suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the most dangerous storms can quickly explode in intensity, so understanding forecasts, hurricane dangers and preparedness should be top-of-mind for residents well before storms start forming.
How can you prepare for hurricane season?
- Check with your local government to see if you live in an evacuation zone.
- Have a plan for where you would go if you need to evacuate and share that plan with friends or loved ones. Plan to travel only as far as you need to.
- Write a family emergency plan with your family and/or close friends to decide how you would contact each other in an emergency, where you will go and what you will do. Keep copies on your phone, in your emergency supplies and share with family.
- Put together a basic emergency kit, with water and shelf stable foods for up to a week, flash lights, back up batteries, a first aid kit and moist towelettes.
- Review your insurance policies to ensure if you have adequate coverage, including flood coverage.
- Store insurance policies, photos of your home and its contents and other important papers in a safe place, in electronic files and/or share copies with family members.
- For more suggestions, visit NOAA’s hurricane preparations page.
What is rapid intensification?
A rapid strengthening of a hurricane, when wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
It occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment for strengthening, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. That environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture.
What is storm surge?
Storm surge, the massive amount of water that builds up and comes ashore during a hurricane, is often the deadliest and most destructive threat from these storms.
It is characterized by water being pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds moving around the storm, NOAA said.
Storm surge has accounted for about half of all the deaths in hurricanes since 1970, according to the National Hurricane Center. It caused most of the 1,800 deaths in Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
